Is the white Southern Democrat extinct, endangered or just hibernating?

The long goodbye

Politics in the South - The long goodbye | United States | The Economist

After enduring covid and turmoil over free speech, the class of 2024 finally takes its bow

After a season of Gaza protests, America’s university graduates are polarised but resilient

A novel idea for solving cold cases comes with high-stakes risks

Can playing cards help catch criminals?

An extra $3bn of federal funding is nice; as for the other $80bn, dream on

The world’s slowest bullet train trundles ahead in California

The Biden administration is trying to walk a fine line in arming Israel

National prohibition has not stifled budding entrepreneurs

Marijuana is already legal for a majority of Americans

United States

Reassessing George Bush

Rocking the party

Nice try

Cold comfort

A new head of the class

His kind of town

A dog's life

Trees grow in Brooklyn

AFTER President Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, he reportedly turned to his press secretary and lamented that Democrats “have lost the South for a generation.” Johnson's judgment was optimistic. Despite brief flashes of strength during the presidential elections of Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, Democrats—particularly white Democrats—have been losing ground in the South for half a century. 

In the Congress that passed the Civil Rights Act in 1964, the eleven former Confederate states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia—had a total of 128 senators and representatives, of whom 115 were white Democrats (see chart). In 1981 Republicans took control of the Senate for the first time since 1953, but most Southern elected officials remained white Democrats. When Republicans took control of the House in 1995, white Democrats still comprised one-third of the South's tally.

This year, however, it seems that white Southern Democrats have met their Appomattox: they will account for just 24 of the South's 155 senators and congressmen in the incoming Congress. The delegations from Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina held only white Democrats in 1963; when the new Congress convenes next January, they will have none. Georgia was also once a Democratic stronghold—in 1981 its House delegation's lone Republican was a fresh-faced young history professor called Newt Gingrich—but this year Republicans won every statewide office. Democrats do well in black and Hispanic-dominated districts, the Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, and the university-heavy areas around Raleigh, North Carolina and Austin, Texas. Otherwise the South is largely red.

This does not indicate a disappearance of liberals. White Southern Democrats were largely conservative before, and the Democratic domination of Congress in the second half of the 20th century rested on an uneasy coalition between men such as James Eastland, a senator from Mississippi who insisted three years after Brown v Board of Education banned segregation that “the vast majority of Negroes want their own schools, their own hospitals, their own churches, their own restaurants”, and northern urban liberals such as Ted Kennedy. Strom Thurmond, Richard Shelby and Phil Gramm—Southern Republican stalwarts all—were first elected as Democrats, and of the 37 Democrats who voted against the health-care bill in March, 16 were Southern whites.

This does not indicate a disappearance of liberals. White Southern Democrats were largely conservative before, and the Democratic domination of Congress in the second half of the 20th century rested on an uneasy coalition between men such as James Eastland, a senator from Mississippi who insisted three years after Brown v Board of Education banned segregation that “the vast majority of Negroes want their own schools, their own hospitals, their own churches, their own restaurants”, and northern urban liberals such as Ted Kennedy. Strom Thurmond, Richard Shelby and Phil Gramm—Southern Republican stalwarts all—were first elected as Democrats, and of the 37 Democrats who voted against the health-care bill in March, 16 were Southern whites.

Some have argued that such conservatism dilutes the Democratic brand: that Democrats lost in November because voters knew what Republicans stood for but could not say the same of Democrats. Ari Berman, author of “Herding Donkeys: The Fight to Rebuild the Democratic Party and Reshape American Politics”, wrote in the New York Times that “Democrats would be in better shape and would accomplish more with a smaller and more ideologically cohesive caucus.” If by “accomplishing more” Mr Berman means “make liberals feel better”, he might be right; but if he means “pass more legislation”, he is wrong. Moderates and conservatives outnumber liberals in Congress, among congressional Democrats and among the electorate at large. Democrats built their 2006-10 majority by extending their reach into traditionally conservative districts. Abandoning those areas, many of them Southern, after the first mid-term election of a new president's term—when the president's party tends to lose seats anyway—would probably be a blunder.

Some have argued that such conservatism dilutes the Democratic brand: that Democrats lost in November because voters knew what Republicans stood for but could not say the same of Democrats. Ari Berman, author of “Herding Donkeys: The Fight to Rebuild the Democratic Party and Reshape American Politics”, wrote in the New York Times that “Democrats would be in better shape and would accomplish more with a smaller and more ideologically cohesive caucus.” If by “accomplishing more” Mr Berman means “make liberals feel better”, he might be right; but if he means “pass more legislation”, he is wrong. Moderates and conservatives outnumber liberals in Congress, among congressional Democrats and among the electorate at large. Democrats built their 2006-10 majority by extending their reach into traditionally conservative districts. Abandoning those areas, many of them Southern, after the first mid-term election of a new president's term—when the president's party tends to lose seats anyway—would probably be a blunder.

Bob Moser, author of “Blue Dixie: Awakening the South's Democratic Majority”, sees two roads to salvation for Southern white Democrats. The first is economic populism of the sort that helped elect Jim Webb in Virginia and Heath Shuler, who is considering a run against Nancy Pelosi for House minority leader, in North Carolina. The second is demography: as the South grows more populous and diverse, Mr Moser contends, it will become friendlier towards Democrats. Perhaps, though that flies in the face of recent history. As the South's population has expanded in absolute and relative terms, the region has become more Republican.

And Democrats face more immediate problems. Next year most states, using census data from 2010, will draw new congressional districts. Nine of the 11 Southern states will have Republican governors, and six of those will have Republican-controlled legislatures as well. Only the Arkansas legislature remains in Democratic hands. Two generations—and counting. 

Politics in the South

Get to grips with a region where capital, climate and geopolitics collide

Go deeper with our Middle East newsletter. Every week our correspondents delve into the political, social and economic stories of a region that is rarely out of the news.

Sign up to our Middle East newsletter

Middle East Dispatch

Follow the action in Latin America, from the depths of the Brazilian Amazon to the Mexican-American border

Every week our correspondents share insights on politics, economics and business from an increasingly complex region

Stay informed with our weekly Latin America newsletter

El Boletín

A sharp round-up of the most important US political news

Sign up for updates from our correspondents and data journalists, poll tracker and election-forecast model as the 2024 race unfolds

The US in brief

Inside Europe, from the front lines in Ukraine to the corridors of power in Brussels

Stay informed with our weekly Europe newsletter

Café Europa

Understand a vast and complicated country that will increasingly shape the future

Stay informed with our weekly India newsletter

Essential India

The best of The Economist’s defence coverage, in one place

The War Room

A weekly conversation about culture. Because culture is a serious business

Exploring trends and connections across entertainment, the arts and politics

Broaden your perspective with our weekly culture newsletter

Plot Twist

Analysing the challenges facing Britain and what needs to be done to overcome them

Stay informed with our weekly Britain newsletter

Blighty

Understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world

Stay informed with our weekly China newsletter

Drum Tower

Your essential guide to global business and technology

From supply chains to semiconductors, The Bottom Line newsletter has you covered

Need to track the megatrends shaping business and technology?

The Bottom Line

Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter

Sign up to enjoy a mind-expanding mix of stories, delivered six days a week

Catch up quickly on the stories that matter

The World in Brief

A behind-the-scenes look at how we chose and designed this week’s cover

How we chose this week’s cover image

Cover Story

Exclusive insight from our correspondents in America

Exclusive insight and reading recommendations from our correspondents in America

Checks and Balance

A weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Curious about the world? Enjoy a weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Simply Science

Climate-change analysis that you won’t read elsewhere in The Economist

The Climate Issue

Expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics and markets

Money Talks

Taking you behind the scenes of our data journalism

Off the Charts

Long reads and life from 1843 magazine

The Extraordinary Story

The very best of our journalism, handpicked for you each weekday

A daily newsletter with the best of our journalism

Handpicked stories, in your inbox

The Economist today

Highlights from the latest weekly issue, introduced by our editor

The long goodbye

Is the white Southern Democrat extinct, endangered or just hibernating?

United States November 13th 2010

From the November 13th 2010 edition

More from United States

After a season of Gaza protests, America’s university graduates are polarised but resilient

Can playing cards help catch criminals?

The world’s slowest bullet train trundles ahead in California